2009 Third and Fourth Quarter Employment Outlook

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Below is an excerpt from a recent white paper published by www.OrlandoJobs.com regarding employment in our region.

Overall Project Summary & Major Findings

In the seven months since the first 2009 Central Florida Employment Outlook white paper, the economy of our nation and our region has changed in many ways. From the housing market to the influx of federal stimulus dollars, we are still feeling our way forward, and the companies included in this survey reflected this uncertainty in their employment outlook for the remainder of 2009, and in their planning for 2010.

The unemployment rate for July 2009 for the counties of Orange, Seminole, Lake and Osceola was 11.0%*. At the time of our first study in February 2009, the unemployment rate for December 2008 (same counties) was 7.7%. This 3.3% jump in Central Florida unemployment between our studies has hit the residents of Central Florida extremely hard. *LAUS (Local Area Unemployment Statistics) (US Bureau of Labor Statistics)

This survey seeks to determine whether the employment outlook is getting any better. Who is hiring? What types of jobs are open right now? How are job seekers finding jobs in Central Florida? What are employers forecasting for 2010?

Major Findings

  • Overall, hiring in Central Florida is very slow but it does exist.
  • Massive layoffs are done for now. Companies surveyed predict very flat 3rd and 4th quarters; most indicated there are not looking to layoff any additional employees, and a full 45% report current job openings. A lot of the hiring happening in the 3rd and 4th quarters will be on an as needed basis. Our respondents indicated they would also do a lot of replacement hiring.
  • Sectors leading the way in Central Florida are healthcare, education, banking, real estate and hospitality.
  • 83% of 174 Central Florida companies surveyed indicated no clear plan of hiring for 2010, but most employers are optimistic that sometime next year things will start to get back to normal and they can start growing again, which creates jobs.
  • The construction and hospitality sectors in Central Florida will remain slow into the foreseeable future. In July of 2009, the construction industry had lost 19.4% of the jobs that employed workers just one year ago. Leisure and hospitality saw their overall job count sink 4.3%. (Data: US Bureau of Labor Statistics) Until the worldwide economy picks up and people start traveling, our surveyed companies in these sectors report they will remain flat.
  • Employers are concerned about employee transition once the economy starts rebounding. Current employees that want to change jobs today cannot because of lack of opportunities. Once there is an uptick in the economy, these employees will be the first out the door. While this is an issue for employers, for jobseekers looking for work, those openings will be a good source of new jobs.
  • Even in high unemployment, highly skilled and educated workers are hard to find. Human Resource departments are going through hundreds of unqualified candidates to find matches for their job requisitions.

A full 83% of the 174 Central Florida companies surveyed indicated no clear plan of hiring for 2010. Additionally, 103 companies used the word “unsure” or “depends on economy” when describing hiring in 2010.

If this survey has one very clear conclusion, it is this: companies do not have a clear hiring plan for 2010. And when companies are not hiring, Central Florida is not growing. The survey indicates that Central Florida employment marketplace may have flattened out, and until the economy starts growing, we will see very slow job growth.

Except for sales and healthcare positions, 2010 will see more of the same type of hiring unless we see a sustainable economic recovery. The “uncertainty” in the marketplace really means that if nothing changes, the majority of job openings will be limited new hires and replacements of current jobs. Jobs will also remain “hidden”, making it extremely difficult for job seekers to find the jobs that may fit their backgrounds.

For more, log on to www.OrlandoJobs.com.

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